NFL Wins Pool Update
Last updated December 23, 2025
Standings
| Rank | Team | Wins | Remaining Games | Win % | Win % Rank | Projected Wins (FPI) | Projected Rank (FPI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Creaser | 30 | 6 | 66.7% | 1 | 33.5 | 1 |
| 2 | Matt Hogel | 27 | 6 | 60.0% | 2 | 29.8 | 3 |
| 2 | Andrew Batchelor | 27 | 6 | 60.0% | 2 | 30.2 | 2 |
| 4 | Matt McEwan | 25 | 6 | 55.6% | 4 | 28.4 | 4 |
| 4 | Karl Loiseau | 25 | 6 | 55.6% | 4 | 27.8 | 5 |
| 6 | Dan Ellenberger | 22 | 6 | 48.9% | 6 | 24.5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mike Thorne | 22 | 6 | 48.9% | 6 | 25.1 | 6 |
| 8 | Andrew Moeller | 20 | 6 | 44.4% | 8 | 23.1 | 8 |
| 9 | Luke Phelan | 19 | 6 | 42.2% | 9 | 22.2 | 9 |
| 10 | Nick Boucher | 14 | 6 | 31.1% | 10 | 17.0 | 10 |
- Projected wins taken from ESPN FPI projections.
Expanded Standings
| Team | Wins |
Projected Wins |
Next Opponent |
Win Probability in Next Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Creaser | ||||
| New England Patriots | 12 | 13.5 | NYJ | 0.87 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10 | 11.3 | BUF | 0.45 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8 | 8.7 | JAX | 0.28 |
| Andrew Batchelor | ||||
| Denver Broncos | 12 | 13.1 | KC | 0.86 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 11 | 12.4 | IND | 0.72 |
| Washington Commanders | 4 | 4.7 | DAL | 0.27 |
| Matt Hogel | ||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 | 12.1 | CHI | 0.61 |
| Houston Texans | 10 | 11.2 | LAC | 0.41 |
| Miami Dolphins | 6 | 6.5 | TB | 0.31 |
| Karl Loiseau | ||||
| Chicago Bears | 11 | 11.8 | SF | 0.39 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 11 | 12.5 | ATL | 0.77 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 3.5 | CIN | 0.27 |
| Matt McEwan | ||||
| Seattle Seahawks | 12 | 13.2 | CAR | 0.75 |
| Buffalo Bills | 11 | 12.3 | PHI | 0.55 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2 | 2.9 | NYG | 0.55 |
| Dan Ellenberger | ||||
| Carolina Panthers | 8 | 8.7 | SEA | 0.25 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7 | 8.1 | GB | 0.41 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 7.7 | DET | 0.30 |
| Mike Thorne | ||||
| Los Angeles Chargers | 11 | 12.0 | HOU | 0.59 |
| Green Bay Packers | 9 | 10.1 | BAL | 0.59 |
| New York Giants | 2 | 3.0 | LV | 0.45 |
| Andrew Moeller | ||||
| Detroit Lions | 8 | 9.2 | MIN | 0.70 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 6.8 | LA | 0.23 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6 | 7.1 | WAS | 0.73 |
| Luke Phelan | ||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 | 10.2 | CLE | 0.62 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 8.3 | MIA | 0.69 |
| Tennessee Titans | 3 | 3.7 | NO | 0.41 |
| Nick Boucher | ||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6 | 7.0 | DEN | 0.14 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5 | 6.5 | ARI | 0.73 |
| Cleveland Browns | 3 | 3.5 | PIT | 0.38 |
- Win probability calculated from covers.com odds
Weekly Head-to-Heads
Leverage measured by:
* Circles to the top right are games between people closest to first
place
* Bigger circles indicate games that are more likely to be closely
contested
Strength of Schedule in the coming weeks
Draft Analysis
| Team | Wins |
Draft Spot |
Expected Wins |
Performance vs. Expectation |
Better Choices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Creaser | |||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10 | 4 | 11 | -1 | 7 |
| New England Patriots | 12 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Matt Hogel | |||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 3 |
| Houston Texans | 10 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 4 |
| Miami Dolphins | 6 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Andrew Batchelor | |||||
| Denver Broncos | 12 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| Washington Commanders | 4 | 14 | 8 | -4 | 11 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 11 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt McEwan | |||||
| Buffalo Bills | 11 | 1 | 12 | -1 | 2 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 12 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2 | 27 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| Karl Loiseau | |||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 11 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 3 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 17 | 7 | -4 | 9 |
| Chicago Bears | 11 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Dan Ellenberger | |||||
| Baltimore Ravens | 7 | 2 | 12 | -5 | 14 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 16 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| Carolina Panthers | 8 | 29 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Mike Thorne | |||||
| Green Bay Packers | 9 | 7 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 11 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 2 |
| New York Giants | 2 | 28 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| Andrew Moeller | |||||
| Detroit Lions | 8 | 6 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6 | 19 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| Luke Phelan | |||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 | 10 | 10 | -1 | 6 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 12 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| Tennessee Titans | 3 | 24 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| Nick Boucher | |||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6 | 3 | 12 | -6 | 17 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5 | 13 | 9 | -4 | 11 |
| Cleveland Browns | 3 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Draft Results
